THE WHITE HOUSE    More ways you can help this #GivingTuesday: As Americans, we do what we can to help the most vulnerable in our communities and around the world. That's why, in addition to the $4.5 billion our government has given to assist those affected by the Syrian crisis, we're working across the board to find more ways to support Syrians in need both abroad and here in the U.S. There's much more work to do, and Americans across the country are stepping up to do what they can to help Syrians and other refugees in need. Join them -- enter your location into this map to find volunteer opportunities at organizations that are helping refugees start fresh in your community. Businesses and foundations are also engaged in this effort. Kickstarter launched its first-ever non-profit campaign dedicated to humanitarian aid. Airbnb offered free housing credits to aid workers in the region, Twitter created a feature to allow donations to non-governmental organizations via tweets, and Instacart gave their customers the option of buying food for refugee families. Through InterAction's Hope for Syria fund, nine aid organizations will provide additional lifesaving relief and support to Syrian refugees rebuilding their shattered lives. #GivingTuesday is a movement that shows the impact we can have when we all pull together. And this holiday season, it's an opportunity to recommit to our country's proud tradition of providing support to the most vulnerable -- and to challenge ourselves to continue being as generous as we can in meeting their needs. As the President said, to slam the door in refugees' faces, to decide not to help when we know that we can help, would be a betrayal of our values. Take a minute to see if there are ways you can devote your skills and energy to help refugees in need in your area: https://www.aidrefugees.gov   The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

THE WHITE HOUSE  What the President is Doing in Paris: Climate change poses a significant threat to our planet, and it will take a global effort to address it. This week, the leaders of almost 200 countries are headed to Paris to stand in solidarity with the French people after the attacks on their capital city, and to work together to protect our future by reaching a global agreement to reduce carbon emissions that are fueling climate change. President Obama will be there -- and he took to his Facebook page to explain why. See what he had to say here. There's no "silver bullet" that will solve climate change. But, under President Obama, the U.S. has taken critical steps to curb our carbon emissions, and more than 180 countries have joined us -- both the ones that emit the most and the ones most at risk -- to announce their own climate plans. It's important that we keep up this momentum, because now is the time to act. If we don't, Americans across the country will continue to suffer the consequences of climate change, from more intense heatwaves and superstorms to rising sea levels and threats to public health. So follow along for live updates from Paris. And, if you're seeing the impacts of climate change firsthand on the job or in your community, share them with us here. The more people see what's happening, the more they'll realize that now is the time to act.

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My Books are on sale and the make GREAT Holiday gifts :) I have 19 copies of Cyber PR for Musicians and 7 copies of Music Success in 9 Weeks here in my office and I’d be delighted to autograph them and mail them to you or to someone you love for the holidays!  Or purchase the ebooks now at a deep discount and start changing your relationship to marketing today. Music Success in 9 Weeks w Foreword by Derek Sivers Suggested For: Artists just starting out and in need of a system. With my candid workbook style, it feels like you are sitting down with me scribbling your own ideas all over the book’s pages. The hands-on guide provides structure to what often feels like chaos.  Cyber PR For Musicians, Tools, Tricks & Tactics For Building Your Social Media House w Foreword by Bobby Owsinski Suggested For: Artists who have a working knowledge of social media but want a deeper dive into specifics on how exactly to design an effective a website, maximize your Twitter and Facebook and build your mailing list.   Both Books Come With: Black Friday Bonus I will also send you my gorgeous 11 X17 poster of my famous Musicians Social Media Food Pyramid to hang above your computer, in your studio, or on your fridge! This poster is a visual guide on how to post on social media more effectively.    I'm Grateful you are on my list! Here's to a happy and healthy holiday season Love, Ariel

Hunton & Williams LLP November 2015   If you cannot view this email correctly, view it online. Click here to forward this email.     The Latin America practice of Hunton & Williams is a multi-disciplinary group focused on cross-border matters, including: mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures, privatizations, securities offerings, securitizations, project finance, telecommunications, international banking, intellectual property, a wide variety of commercial matters and international arbitration and transnational litigation matters. Below are select recent developments which may be of interest to your organization. VIDEO SERIES – Practice Focus: Latin America 2015 Developments in Latin America Visit Hunton & Williams on YouTube, Practice Focus: Latin America playlist for additional details and videos. WEBINARS – Focus on Latin America The Latin America practice features an ongoing webinar series. Recordings and additional details on past webinars and programming, including CLE, can be found on Hunton.com under the Latin America Practice, “Events” page. Details on the most recent programs can be found below: Crossroad of the U.S. Embargo and the Cuban Legal Framework -- Overview and Developments in cooperation with PLI; Presenter(s): Gustavo J. Membiela and Uriel A. Mendieta FCPA Implications of Foreign Sponsorships in the Wake of the FIFA Investigation; Presenter(s): John J. Delionado and Corey A. Lee Update on Cuba: A Changing Investment Landscape in cooperation with CT; Presenter(s): Gustavo J. Membiela and Uriel A. Mendieta Cross Border Insurance Issues for Policyholders Doing Business in Latin America and US; Presenter(s): Walter J. Andrews and Sergio F. Oehninger Abriendo puertas a Cuba - Implicaciones a nivel internacional de las modificaciones en la política de los Estados Unidos frente a Cuba in cooperation with Iberian Lawyer; Presenter(s): Gustavo J. Membiela and Uriel  A. Mendieta Latin America Forecast 2015: Focus on Asia; Presenter(s): Fernando C. Alonso, Susan Failla, Wally Martinez and Raj Pande Focus on Cuba: Practical Implications of Changes in U.S. Restrictions and Cuba’s New Foreign Direct Investment Laws; Presenter(s): Gustavo J. Membiela and Uriel  A. Mendieta Cross Border M&A in Latin America: Opportunities and Legal Challenges for Multinationals in cooperation with Chambers & Partners; Presenter: Fernando C. Alonso   IN THE NEWS – Press and Thought Leadership New Updates to the Cuban Assets Control Regulations  In a continued effort to implement policy changes, OFAC and BIS announced additional amendments to the CACR and EAR. Overall, the regulatory changes loosen restrictions on travel to and business and investment in Cuba.  Trademark Registration in Cuba As the US diplomatic relationship with Cuba continues on its path of normalization and the possibility for increased economic opportunities for US companies with the island increase with the potential further loosening of restrictions prohibiting engaging in business in Cuba, US businesses looking at the Cuban market have begun taking steps to register their trademarks in Cuba.  Billing Rates Should Not Discourage Policyholders' Selection of Independent Counsel, Insurance Coverage, Volume 25, Issue 28 It is well known that insurance companies negotiate low attorney hourly rates for defense of their policyholders.  When a conflict arises that requires policyholders to retain independent counsel, insurers frequently try to impose those same rates on the policyholders’ selected attorneys. The ensuing fight over billing rates can discourage policyholders from selecting the best attorneys for the job.  FIFA Kickback and Bribery Allegations & Insurance For Related Third-Party Investigations Bribes of $40,000 stuffed in envelopes, a flight to Europe solely to retrieve a briefcase full of cash and a $10 million payoff to secure votes for choosing the World Cup host country are among the allegations in the recent indictment against FIFA representatives and related business associates. M&As: Lawyers Without Borders There are two reasons why Latin American clients keep coming to US law firms to handle their cross-border M&A deals. The first reason is our execution capabilities: US law firms have been advising on cross-border M&As for more than 100 years. The second reason is the predictability of a tried and tested legal system: US law remains the preeminent choice for large cross-border M&A deals because of the certainties and guarantees it offers to everyone involved.  Latin America's Silicon Beach  While California may remain the number one destination for venture capital investment, South Florida is making in-roads and is yet to take full advantage of its greatest assets: its geographical location and Latin flair. With a wealth of untapped investment opportunities south of the US border, Miami has the potential to be the venture capital hub for Latin America. Navigating Cross-Border Coverage in the Bermuda ‘Choice Of Law’ Triangle Because American courts have interpreted insurance policies in some unexpected ways over the past several decades, many insurance carriers and policyholders have shied away from U.S.-based insurance coverage and have flocked to Bermuda to use what are commonly referred to as “Bermuda Form” policies. The idea is that the use of these foreign policies can mitigate some of the perceived risks posed by the American court system.  Centre for Information Policy Leadership Comments on Brazil’s Draft Privacy Law On May 5, 2015, the Centre for Information Policy Leadership at Hunton & Williams (“CIPL”) filed comments in English andPortuguese on Brazil’s draft law “on the processing of personal data to protect the personality and dignity of natural persons” (the “Draft Law”). A Long Arm And Short Leash For Coverage Territory Clauses When purchasing liability insurance coverage, it is naturally important to assess the scope of the coverage offered in the various proposed policy forms. In evaluating the scope of coverage, policyholders and their counsel often focus on the scope of liability policies’ insuring agreements and any potentially applicable exclusions.  Cyber Insurance Coverage Comes in All Shapes and Sizes No firewall appears to be unbreachable and no security system impenetrable. No company is big or small or traditional enough to avoid such exposure, as long as the business receives or transmits data or uses computer networks. US clients looking for acquisitions in Latin America A crucial task is creating agreements that safeguard clients´ interests by complying with local law while not being governed by it. Latin American markets such as Brazil, Panama, Colombia and Peru are providing firms with significant opportunities for cross-border work, particularly in energy, oil and gas exploration, infrastructure, financial services and consumer products. Reopening of American Embassy in Cuba  Following Cuba’s removal from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on May 29, 2015, the United States and Cuba took an additional step towards normalizing relations by announcing the reopening of embassies after more than five decades of their closure.  Cuba’s Removal from List of State Sponsors of Terrorism  Following President Obama’s announcement on December 17, 2014 of a policy to normalize relations with Cuba, the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) amended its Export Administration Regulations (EAR) and the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) amended its Cuban Assets Control Regulations (CACR) on January 16, 2015, to implement the policy change. Focus on Cuba On April 14, 2015, the White House announced that President Obama intends to remove Cuba from the government’s list of nations that sponsor terrorism. This decision follows a series of important changes to US policies and regulations affecting business and commercial transactions between the United States and Cuba. Brazil Releases Draft Personal Data Protection Bill On January 28, 2015, the Brazilian government issued the Preliminary Draft Bill for the Protection of Personal Data (Anteprojeto de Lei para a Proteção de Dados Pessoais) on a websitespecifically created for public debate on the draft bill. The text of the bill (in Portuguese) is available on the website. Counterfeits in the Supply Chain: A Big Problem and it's Getting Worse Counterfeit products create global problems that affect a wide range of industries. False labeling of products, fake or inferior materials and components used to make products, and the misappropriated use of another’s trademark are examples of how counterfeit goods and the theft of intellectual property are hurting consumers and companies. Resource Financed Infrastructure: A Discussion on a New Form of Infrastructure Financing This report, consisting of a study and comments from internationally reputed economists and policy makers, provides an analytical discussion of resource financed infrastructure (RFI) contracting from a project finance perspective.        Fernando C. Alonso     Walter J. Andrews     John J. Beardsworth, Jr.     Bojana Bellamy     Stefano D’Aniello     John J. Delionado     Susan S. Failla     Corey Lee     Wally Martinez     Fernando Margarit     Gustavo J. Membiela     Uriel A. Mendieta     Sergio F. Oehninger     Raj Pande     John Jay Range     Rail Seoane     Lisa J. Sotto     David R. Yates

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When my wife Miriam had stage 3 colon cancer in 2003, it was refugee who saved her life. Her internist, Dr. Irinia Vilenskaya, a refugee from the USSR, and her husband, oncologist Dr. Gregory Braslavsky, stepped in after other doctors had essentially turned her away. I am grateful every day that the United States welcomed them with open arms. Doctors Vilenskaya and Braslavsky were part of a wave of Jews fleeing religious and ethnic persecution in the Soviet Union. I worked with many of them when I was stationed in Rome in 1989 for HIAS, a Jewish organization that at the time was dedicated to helping Jews escape life-threatening persecution. Many had survived the Nazis, the Communists, and their efforts to wipe out Jewish religion and culture. They wanted to live in a place where they could, for the first time in their lives be proud to be Jewish. Today, I am proud to serve as president of that same organization, which now helps refugees of many faiths and ethnicities, here in the United States and around the world.And I’m proud of President Obama for welcoming them to our country. Protecting refugees remains as urgent today as it was then. As it says in Torah, we know the heart of the stranger, because we were once strangers ourselves. HIAS has helped hundreds of families, not so different from yours or mine, who take on the challenge of starting a new life in a new country with tremendous tenacity and grace. Because I know what refugees like Dr. Vilenskaya have contributed to this country, it breaks my heart that for some Americans a justifiable fear of terrorism has translated into fear of the other, and especially fear of refugees from Syria. Refugees are not terrorists; they are people fleeing terror. And we can welcome them into our country while also making sure we’re safe. In fact, refugee applicants have to go through the most intensive screening of any type of traveler to the U.S. However, fear has gotten the better of many governors who have declared that they will not accept the resettlement of Syrian refugees into their states. Openly declaring that refugees are not welcome here damages the character of this country. This type of xenophobic fear from some governors makes it much harder for nonprofit resettlement agencies like mine to welcome refugees into their new communities. That's why it means so much that President Obama is standing up for refugees. As he said, "slamming the door in the face of refugees would betray our deepest values. That's not who we are. And it's not what we're going to do." I'm thankful to President Obama for standing up for refugees. I hope you'll take a stand, too. Thank you, Mark Hetfield

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Leia meu artigo publicado hoje no Jornal O Estado de S. Paulo, 26 de novembro de 2015

E LA NAVE VA... ALLA DERIVA (Leia no site)

“Não há necessidade maior para as pessoas que vivem em comunidade que a de serem governadas, autogovernadas se possível, bem governadas se tiverem sorte, mas, em qualquer caso, governadas”. - Walter Lippman

A economia brasileira passará o réveillon na UTI e nela permanecerá por um bom tempo. Sabemos hoje que os vaticínios pessimistas sobre 2015 foram demasiado amenos. A realidade, como se vê neste final de ano, acabou sendo bem mais adversa. O principal indicador do nível da atividade econômica, o PIB, teve uma contração em torno de 3 por cento. De ponta a ponta, ou seja, comparando este último trimestre com o mesmo período de 2014, a queda estimada é mais forte: 4,5%.

Como o setor agropecuário, ao longo do ano, teve uma performance razoável - crescimento em torno de 2% - e a área de serviços sempre varia em torno da média, os dados ruins sobre o PIB escondem algo pior: a evolução catastrófica da indústria manufatureira, cujo produto caiu em torno de 11%. A marcha para a ruína do setor, iniciada pela política econômica do segundo governo Lula, prossegue implacável. Basta mencionar que o produto industrial nunca mais superou o nível de 2008. Eis a grande marca econômica da era petista: a desindustrialização do Brasil.

A pesquisa mensal do comércio aponta para um declínio superior a 11% nas vendas no varejo, batendo com o declínio da massa salarial, da ordem de 10,5 % de outubro a outubro.

Já os investimentos do conjunto da economia têm caído aproximadamente 12% - causa e efeito da queda observada na indústria. A contração dos investimentos governamentais atinge espantosos 40%!

Do lado do emprego, os números absolutos são impressionantes: no acumulado em 12 meses houve destruição líquida de 1,4 milhão de vagas (carteira assinada), das quais 557 mil na indústria de transformação e 442 mil na construção civil, acertando em cheio setores de menores rendimentos. Coisa igual pode ter acontecido com a remuneração dos trabalhadores no setor informal da economia. Em outubro deste ano, os rendimentos reais dos brasileiros foram 7% inferiores aos de outubro do ano passado.


Pelo menos 1 milhão de assalariados formais perderam seu plano de saúde junto com o emprego. Os gastos reais do SUS, incluindo estados e municípios, caíram em torno de 5% nos dez primeiros meses de 2015 em comparação com 2014. O colapso das finanças municipais e estaduais é assombroso, e compromete diretamente o atendimento nas áreas sociais. No caso dos estados, entre janeiro e agosto, em relação ao mesmo período de 2014, as receitas reais caíram em média 5,4%.

E o futuro próximo? As previsões sobre o PIB apontam para a persistência da retração em 2016 – cerca de 2%, que será mais intensa no primeiro semestre.

Do ponto de vista social, ou seja, da oferta de serviços básicos, dos rendimentos e do emprego, o quadro adverso de 2015 irá se acirrar nos próximos meses. Em parte, isso se deve ao fato de que as consequências do desemprego sobre a renda e a demanda das famílias são proteladas no Brasil em virtude dos benefícios recebidos por quem é demitido. Assim, o trabalhador com carteira assinada que perde o emprego recebe pelo menos o saldo do FGTS recolhido, mais multa de 40% sobre esse saldo, seguro desemprego, aviso prévio de um mês, férias proporcionais (incluindo o abono de férias) e fração de décimo-terceiro salário. Somados, esses benefícios dão alívio temporário para os recém desempregados. Por isso, os efeitos da onda recente de desemprego tenderão a se manifestar com intensidade crescente nos primeiros meses de 2016.

Além dos naturais efeitos da contração industrial que se espraiam por toda a economia, tudo indica que que o país se confrontará com a retração da oferta de crédito das instituições financeiras públicas e privadas, cada vez mais temerosas com solvência das empresas, e alarmadas com o naufrágio de projetos que envolvem a Petrobrás, como é o caso da Sete Brasil.

Um indicador já “antigo” mostra o início desse processo: no terceiro trimestre de 2015, em relação ao mesmo período do ano passado, as despesas com provisões para devedores duvidosos dos quatro maiores bancos cresceram acentuadamente: Bradesco, 15%; Itaú, 29%; Banco do Brasil, 88%; e Caixa Econômica Federal, 87%. Aliás, o balanço do terceiro trimestre do BB revela forte prejuízo operacional: o lucro líquido apurado só foi possível pela incorporação nos resultados de ativos fiscais diferidos.

Mais ainda, a piora das expectativas dos agentes econômicos funciona como profecia que se autorrealiza. Ou seja, a ideia de que a economia irá mal provoca queda adicional do produto e do emprego. Um vetor nesse sentido vem das agências de rating, cujos vereditos negativos funcionam de forma procíclica, reduzindo investimentos, dificultando e encarecendo a rolagem de financiamentos e redundando em rodadas adicionais de contração da economia.

Convenhamos, de todo modo, que há bons pretextos para essa atitude das agências. De um lado, uma empresa do tamanho da Petrobrás perde capacidade de rolar suas dívidas. Do outro, o déficit público agregado e acumulado aumenta 115% em doze meses, passando de R$ 250 bilhões em setembro de 2014 para R$ 536 bilhões um ano depois! Só de juros, os gastos chegaram a R$ 510 bilhões no período – cerca de cinco vezes o orçamento federal da Educação e dezoito vezes o Bolsa Família.

De fato, minha sensação, ou conclusão, é que dias melhores não virão. A menos que...

A menos que haja uma mudança política de grande profundidade. Ou seja, a economia dependerá mais do que nunca da política. O atual governo, inepto, inseguro, sem rumo nem sustentação congressual, é um elo decisivo do círculo vicioso que empurra o Brasil para trás e para baixo.

Lembro, a esse respeito, a opinião externada em discurso na semana passada por um senador do PSB, Fernando Coelho. Ele propôs que a presidente Dilma Rousseff incite a Câmara de Deputados a apreciar ao menos um dos pedidos de impeachment que se acumulam naquela Casa. Se vencesse, retomaria alguma condição de governar. Se perdesse, abriria a chance de o Brasil voltar-se ao futuro. Do jeito que vai, só lhe restará contemplar o barco que não dirige continuar à deriva no mar bravio.

SENADOR DA REPÚBLICA, EX-PREFEITO E EX-GOVERNADOR DE SÃO PAULO

Acompanhe novos artigos no meu site: http://www.joseserra.com.br