Having trouble viewing this email? View online. Country Risk and Industry Research Round-Up Explore our research spanning supply chain shifts, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, geopolitical risks and the US election in our latest round-up below: Global Trade Shake-up A combination of factors including the global Covid-19 pandemic, US protectionism and new technologies will reshape global trade in the coming years. We published a raft of analysis on this topic over July, including an overarching webinar. We focused on US/China and US/EU relations and considered the extent to which the US’ November election could impact US and global trade policy. Finally we looked at shifting supply chains, highlighting how a greater embrace of ‘regionalisation’ will impact different parts of the supply chain and which countries stand to benefit. Webinar: Globalisation, Trade Wars And Covid-19: Where Does Global Trade Go From Here? Article: Supply Chain Diversification: Can South Asia Seize The Moment? Article: Shift In Global Manufacturing Supply Chains Will Offer Limited Benefit For SSA Article: MENA Textiles And Mid-Range Manufactured Exports To Benefit From Global Supply Chain Diversification Industry 4.0 Quietly Taking Shape Amidst the economic turmoil being wrought by the global Covid-19 pandemic, investments continue to be made in laying the groundwork for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, or ‘Industry 4.0’. Most strikingly, China’s vast economic stimulus package to be implemented over the coming months includes major investments into new technologies such as 5G, Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) transmission and electric vehicle infrastructure. Outside of China, numerous smart ports, particularly in Asia and Europe, are leading the push towards increased automation and connectivity through the use of technologies such as AI, Blockchain and IoT. Webinar: InfraTech: Technology In The Construction Sector Article: China's New Infrastructure Investments To Underpin Economic Growth Over The Next Decade Article: Smart Ports: Global Logistics Centres Becoming Key Information Exchange Hubs Article: Increased Focus On Factory Automation Will Support 5G Use In Autos China And The West: End Of The Trend? The multi-decade trend of closer economic and political ties between the West and China is under threat. We published a raft of analysis on this topic in July, for instance examining why US-China tensions are on a path towards greater escalation in the coming years. As China charts a more unilateral path, other major emerging markets will face starker choices over their diplomatic relations with the country. For instance, in a world order increasingly bifurcated between China and the West, India will likely lean closer to the Western powers in a bid to counter China’s growing geopolitical influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Article: US-China Tensions Will Continue To Escalate As Pressure Points Remain Article: India's Growing Anti-China Sentiment Spurring A Tilt Towards The West Article: China On Track For V-Shaped Recovery In 2020 Article: Contrarian View: How US-China Relations Could Improve Over The Coming Years US Election Radar Although the November US presidential elections remain some way off, our political risk analysts have been publishing their thoughts on several major themes that are set to play out. For instance, we see a rising possibility of a dispute over the results of the November US general election, due to the likely unprecedented use of mail-in balloting. Disputes over the logistics and results of the election could plunge the US into a political legitimacy crisis unprecedented in the modern era. Article: US Election Disputes Appear Increasingly Likely Article: US Election: What Could Upend The Campaign? Article: US President Donald Trump's Re-Election Increasingly In Doubt More Of Our Most Popular: Special Report: The New Normal: How Covid-19 is influencing Consumer Trends Webinar: Europe: Post-Covid-19 Macroeconomic Trends Article: Political Risk Tracker: Sub-Saharan Africa (July 2020) Article: US Dollar To Weaken Further, But Bouts Of Risk Aversion To See Rallies Article: Covid-19 Will Catalyse New Forms Of Taxation, Particularly In Europe Special Report: Oil & Gas Global Capex Outlook Special Report: MedTech: The Technological Disruption In Healthcare Special Report: Internet of Things: The Industry Connection Article: What Our Clients Want To Know: Commodities After Covid-19 Article: EU To Take Leading Role Developing Green Hydrogen Connected Thinking In Challenging Times Stay updated on the shifting global environment with analysis, forecasts, data and insight on economic, political, operational and industrial risk factors across 22 key sectors and 200 markets. Fitch Solutions’ Country Risk & Industry Research provides comprehensive, comparable and systematic coverage that helps customers better understand the opportunities and risks they face, particularly in emerging and frontier markets. Find out more: Request a Demonstration THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research. FSMM-2008

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Global Ecommerce Sales Will Decelerate This Year Ecommerce has been a bright spot among retail channels during the coronavirus, as consumers became reliant on digital transactions amid physical store closures and fear of infection. However, the impact on ecommerce retail spending has not been felt evenly across the world. Asia-Pacific and North America have led the regional totals for both brick-and-mortar and ecommerce sales, followed by Western Europe. Due in part to China's dominance, Asia-Pacific has gained a significant lead in ecommerce with 62.6% share, over North America and Western Europe, who are expected to have shares of 19.1% and 12.7%, respectively. While some regions experienced tremendous growth in certain sectors of retail, we have adjusted our ecommerce estimates down to $3.914 trillion, as the deceleration of global retail in 2020 has surely impacted overall global retail sales. Read the full article. [Assessment] Test Your Marketing Intelligence Each marketing team is in a different stage in establishing their intelligence strategy. Take the “Marketing Intelligence Maturity” Assessment, sponsored content made possible by Datorama, a Salesforce company, to see where you stand next to peers. Take the Assessment & Get the Playbook The Pandemic Has Driven Boomers to Increase Their Digital Shopping As the pandemic caused widespread shutdowns, consumers who traditionally preferred brick-and-mortar retail shifted at least some of their spending to digital channels. Full Article How Digital Giants in China Are Helping Revive the Country's Retail Sector China’s retail sector has been on a steady path to recovery over the past few months. According to June data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China, retail sales experienced a year-over-year drop of 1.8%, reaching $485.30 billion (RMB3.353 trillion). That was an increase of 1 percentage point over the prior month. Full Article Meatless Farm on the Future of Plant-Based Food and the Shift to Ecommerce After launching in roughly 450 US Whole Foods locations—and partnering with New York City-based Italian restaurant Pomodoro Rosso last year—plant-based meat company Meatless Farm launched its own direct-to-consumer (D2C) site amid the pandemic, as consumer shopping behaviors continue to lean to ecommerce. Full Article What Digital Shopping Habits in the UK May Look Like Post-Pandemic UK consumers’ shopping habits have undergone a change that is unlikely to be reversed. According to our latest forecast, nonecommerce retail sales will drop by 16.0% this year, followed by a recovery in 2021. However, sales will never reach pre-pandemic levels. Full Article ©2020 eMarketer, Inc. 11 Times Square, New York, NY 10036   eMarketer Retail Weekly is published by eMarketer, Inc. Tuesday, August 11 12:00 p.m. – 1:30 p.m. (NY Time) Personal branding is about clarifying who you are, who you want to be, and how you want others to perceive you. In the new world of social distancing, Your Best Personal Brand Workshop will help you and your team become your best brand for every online engagement. “Your personal brand is your most important asset. You have an opportunity to be better every day.” - Gilman Hanson Speaker: Gilman Hanson, Co-Founder, Novamerge and Chief Design Officer, Hanson Design Registration Information Members: Free Non-members: $15 Webinar information will be provided to registrants once registration has been completed.

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