BRAZIL: MIDYEAR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL OUTLOOK
Last August 1, 2018 happenned Proskauer Rose
LLP, New York, New York, Brazil is in the grips of a presidential election,
marked by unusual uncertainties. A string of
unprecedented corruption scandals, trials, and convictions have entangled
nearly all the political parties as well as the highest levels of
government. It has created an electorate that is resentful, angry, and fed up
with the political class. The anti-establishment view is widespread. Many are
turning away from politics and the polls. A security/safety crisis
deepens the sense of loss and disenfranchisement and encourages extremists.
Meanwhile, the recovery from the recession has
faltered and now stalled. Perhaps it is just a temporary downturn following the
recent transportation strike, but GDP growth forecasts have been lowered to
1-1.5%, far from the 3-4% optimistically projected at the start of the year.
There has been considerable progress in fiscal adjustment, but public debt has
grown from 51.5% of GDP in 2013 to 74% today, and could soon reach 100% unless
the fiscal program begun by the current administration is maintained by the
next President.
For all his unpopularity, personal and political
mistakes, President Temer has been served by an exceptional economic team. He
supported and maneuvered through Congress some of the fundamental reforms
needed to address the fiscal risks and improve the competitiveness of the
Brazilian economy. None of this is in the campaign agenda. The reforms are ill
understood, maligned by powerful interest groups, and held with contempt by several
of the leading contenders, who appear willing to sacrifice the economy in
pursuit of electoral victory.
Join us for our traditional mid-year outlook for a
measured and forward-looking discussion of the prospects for the economy, the
elections and the future of Brazil.
Participed of event
moderator, Paulo Vieira da Cunha, Partner, VERBANK Consulting, LLC and speakers,
José Guilherme Almeida dos Reis, Executive Director-Brazil and Suriname, Inter-American
Development Bank
Christopher Garman, Managing Director, The Americas, Eurasia Group
Alberto Ramos, Managing Director and Chief-Economist, LATAM, Goldman Sachs
Drausio Giacomelli, Head of EM Research, Deutsche Bank Securities
Claudia Ribeiro de Castro, Director & Senior Analyst, EM, Oppenheimer Funds
Christopher Garman, Managing Director, The Americas, Eurasia Group
Alberto Ramos, Managing Director and Chief-Economist, LATAM, Goldman Sachs
Drausio Giacomelli, Head of EM Research, Deutsche Bank Securities
Claudia Ribeiro de Castro, Director & Senior Analyst, EM, Oppenheimer Funds
VIDEO-CONFERENCE SERIES: BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS - THE ECONOMIC PROGRAMS OF THE CANDIDATES
September 5, 2018
Time: 5:30
PM to 6:30 PM
Location: Brazilian-American
Chamber of Commerce, Inc., New York, New The Chamber is organizing a series of
video-conferences between September 5th and 13th with the economic advisors to
the leading Presidential candidates. The format will be
one-hour video-conferences at the Chamber offices. The advisor will
present the candidates economic platform, followed by Q&A from the
audience.
Please join us on September 5th at the Chamber for the first videoconference of the series, with Gustavo Franco. Mr. Franco has a long and distinguished career in Brazilian policy and finance. During the administration of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, he was among the formulators of the Plano Real, and served as Central Bank President in the Cardoso administration. He is currently affiliated with the Partido Novo (New Party), committed to policies emphasizing economic liberalization and a more open economy.
Below are the advisors who have been invited to participate and the status of their invitation. As dates and times are confirmed, we will notify our members. We hope you will be able to join these interesting and timely discussions on the economic programs being put forth by the candidates.
Please join us on September 5th at the Chamber for the first videoconference of the series, with Gustavo Franco. Mr. Franco has a long and distinguished career in Brazilian policy and finance. During the administration of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, he was among the formulators of the Plano Real, and served as Central Bank President in the Cardoso administration. He is currently affiliated with the Partido Novo (New Party), committed to policies emphasizing economic liberalization and a more open economy.
Below are the advisors who have been invited to participate and the status of their invitation. As dates and times are confirmed, we will notify our members. We hope you will be able to join these interesting and timely discussions on the economic programs being put forth by the candidates.
Confirmed Video-Conference, September 5th at 5:30
p.m. with
Gustavo Franco, Advisor for João Amoêdo, Partido Novo
Gustavo Franco, Advisor for João Amoêdo, Partido Novo
Future Video-Conferences Include:
Pérsio Arida, Advisor for Geraldo Alckmin, PSDB
Party - Confirmed - Date TBD
Marcio Pochmann, Advisor for the PT
Cadidate - Confirmed - Date TBD
Mauro Benevides, Advisor for Ciro
Gomes, PDT Party - Invited
Paulo Guedes, Advisor for Jair Bolsonaro, PSL
Party - Invited
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27-30 Sep
Metropolitan
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BRAZIL'S LABOR REFORM - ONE YEAR LATER: HOW THE LAW
IS RESHAPING THE LABOR MARKET
September 11,
2018
Time: 8:00
AM to 10:00 AM
Location: Brazilian-American
Chamber of Commerce, Inc., New York, New York
In July of 2017 Congress passed the deepest reform
to Brazil’s labor laws in generations. The law modernized the legal
framework governing employee relations, one of the Temer administration’s major
reforms intended to re-vitalize the economy. Now fully implemented, what has
been the effect? How has the law altered employer/employee relations, how
have the courts and society reacted, and what can be anticipated regarding the
law’s long-term impact on Brazilian productivity?
Join us for an expert panel to discuss these and other key topics related to the law. Minister Alexandre de Souza Agra Belmonte of the Superior Court of Labor will lead the discussion, with his perspective as a judge on Brazil’s highest court for labor litigation. Joining Minister Belmonte will be Rodrigo Soares, Lemann professor of Brazilian Public Policy at Columbia, who has long studied the impact of labor on development economics. Completing the panel will be labor attorney Marilia Minicucci who will report on the key changes observed in labor practices as a consequence of the law.
The panel will be moderated by Renata Neeser, a Brazilian attorney based in New York, with a depth of experience in both New York and Brazilian labor and employment law.
Sponsored by Littler Mendelson, this event has been a pre-approved for 1.5 hours of New York CLE credits. All other states will be applied for upon request.
Join us for an expert panel to discuss these and other key topics related to the law. Minister Alexandre de Souza Agra Belmonte of the Superior Court of Labor will lead the discussion, with his perspective as a judge on Brazil’s highest court for labor litigation. Joining Minister Belmonte will be Rodrigo Soares, Lemann professor of Brazilian Public Policy at Columbia, who has long studied the impact of labor on development economics. Completing the panel will be labor attorney Marilia Minicucci who will report on the key changes observed in labor practices as a consequence of the law.
The panel will be moderated by Renata Neeser, a Brazilian attorney based in New York, with a depth of experience in both New York and Brazilian labor and employment law.
Sponsored by Littler Mendelson, this event has been a pre-approved for 1.5 hours of New York CLE credits. All other states will be applied for upon request.
Moderator
Renata Neeser, Shareholder, Littler Mendelson
Speakers
Alexandre de Souza Agra Belmonte, Minister, Superior Court of Labor (Tribunal Superior do Trabalho)
Rodrigo R. Soares, Lemann Professor of Brazilian Public Policy and International Public Affairs, School for International Public Affairs (SIPA), Columbia University
Marilia Minicucci, Partner and Co-Founder, Chiode Minicucci Advogados
Renata Neeser, Shareholder, Littler Mendelson
Speakers
Alexandre de Souza Agra Belmonte, Minister, Superior Court of Labor (Tribunal Superior do Trabalho)
Rodrigo R. Soares, Lemann Professor of Brazilian Public Policy and International Public Affairs, School for International Public Affairs (SIPA), Columbia University
Marilia Minicucci, Partner and Co-Founder, Chiode Minicucci Advogados
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